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For the majority of 2024, Russia has held the overall battlefield initiative in Ukraine. That period has seen slow, continuous advances as the Russian military slowly ground its way forward. Throughout that process, Moscow has known it enjoys a degree of sanctuary on its own territory, effectively shielded from advanced long-range Western weapons or serious ground incursions.
On August 6th, that sanctuary was directly challenged when a force of Ukrainian Brigades breached the Russian border in the Kursk region and, in the days that followed, overran an area comparable in size to months worth of Russian gains and at a fraction of the price.
Today, we talk about this sudden Ukrainian offensive, how it started, what it may show about the nature of warfare in Ukraine and, as the eyes of the world are on Kursk, what may happen next.
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Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
At one point I refer to us being “more than two and a half years in” to the Russian full-scale invasion. I meant to say “almost two and a half years in”
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Sources & Reading (To be completed 19/08 due to late release):
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:42 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:45 — The War In August 2024
00:05:49 — Preparation & Forewarning?
00:12:41 — Force Composition: Russia
00:14:03 — Force Composition: Ukraine
00:17:17 — Defence Lines
00:28:21 — A Statement Of Potential Intent
00:31:48 — (Tentative) Observations
00:42:03 — Politics & Perceptions
00:44:30 — The Russian Response
00:51:21 — The Military Dynamic?
00:56:28 — Assessing Objectives
01:00:12 — What Comes Next?
01:03:29 — Conclusions
01:04:42 — Channel Update