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For the majority of 2024, Russia has held the overall battlefield initiative in Ukraine. That period has seen slow, continuous advances as the Russian military slowly ground its way forward. Throughout that process, Moscow has known it enjoys a degree of sanctuary on its own territory, effectively shielded from advanced long-range Western weapons or serious ground incursions.

On August 6th, that sanctuary was directly challenged when a force of Ukrainian Brigades breached the Russian border in the Kursk region and, in the days that followed, overran an area comparable in size to months worth of Russian gains and at a fraction of the price.

Today, we talk about this sudden Ukrainian offensive, how it started, what it may show about the nature of warfare in Ukraine and, as the eyes of the world are on Kursk, what may happen next.

Patreon:
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Caveats, Comments and Corrections:

At one point I refer to us being “more than two and a half years in” to the Russian full-scale invasion. I meant to say “almost two and a half years in”

All normal caveats and disclaimers apply

In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes

Sources & Reading (To be completed 19/08 due to late release):

Timestamps:

00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:42 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:45 — The War In August 2024
00:05:49 — Preparation & Forewarning?
00:12:41 — Force Composition: Russia
00:14:03 — Force Composition: Ukraine
00:17:17 — Defence Lines
00:28:21 — A Statement Of Potential Intent
00:31:48 — (Tentative) Observations
00:42:03 — Politics & Perceptions
00:44:30 — The Russian Response
00:51:21 — The Military Dynamic?
00:56:28 — Assessing Objectives
01:00:12 — What Comes Next?
01:03:29 — Conclusions
01:04:42 — Channel Update

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00:00:00 – Roberto Betholdo: “A PF era um prostíbulo e Bolsonaro o cafetão”

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রাশিয়ার মাটিতে অপ্রতিরোধ্য জেলেনস্কির সেনারা | Ukraine | News | Desh TV

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[앵커]
이번 주는 열대저압부에 이어 저기압이 한반도에 영향을 주면서 주 중반까지 전국에 비가 내릴 것으로 전망됩니다.

하지만 비가 더위의 기세를 꺾진 못할 것으로 보여 폭염과 열대야는 장기간 더 이어질 것으로 보입니다.

김민경 기자의 보도입니다.

[기자]
타이완 동쪽 해상에 구름 덩어리가 보입니다.

태풍으로 발달하기 전 단계인, 17호 열대저압부입니다.

중심 풍속이 초속 17m 미만으로 태풍만큼 세력이 강하진 않지만, 뜨겁고 습한 열기를 몰고 와 현재 한반도의 폭염을 부추기고 있습니다.

지난 밤사이 서울의 최저기온은 27도, 28일째 연속 열대야가 나타나며 관측이래 가장 긴 열대야 기록을 새로 썼습니다.

한낮에도 전국적으로 33도 안팎의 강도 높은 무더위가 이어졌습니다.

[허옥선, 박애자 / 서울 삼성동 : 너무 더워서 밖에 돌아다닐 엄두가 안나서…. 쓰러질 것 같아요.]

더위를 부추긴 열대저압부는 앞으로 빠르게 북상해 이번 주 초, 제주도 남쪽 해상까지 올라오겠습니다.

하지만 태풍으로 더 발달하지 못한 채 화요일 하루, 우리나라 제주도와 남부 지방에 영향을 줄 전망입니다.

[송수환 / 기상청 예보분석관 : 20일 화요일 사이 남부지방과 제주도를 중심으로 많은 비가 올 것으로 예상됩니다.]

제주도에는 최고 80mm 이상, 남부지방에도 많게는 60mm, 중부 지방에는 5~40mm의 비가 예상됩니다.

일부 지역에서는 천둥과 번개를 동반한 시간당 30mm 이상의 강한 비가 쏟아지겠습니다.

특히 이번 주는 해수면 높이가 크게 높아지는 ‘백중사리’ 기간으로, 해안가 인근에서는 저지대 침수와 너울로 인한 피해가 우려됩니다.

기상청은 열대저압부가 빠져나간 뒤에도 서쪽에서 저기압이 한 차례 다가오며 주 중반까지 전국에 비가 내릴 것으로 내다봤습니다.

다만, 이 비가 긴 폭염과 열대야를 완전히 해소하기는 어려울 것이라는 게 기상청의 분석입니다.

[우진규 / YTN 재난위원, 기상청 통보관 : 폭염특보가 다소 완화될 가능성은 있지만, 폭염 경보에서 폭염주의보 수준으로 될 거라고 보고 30도 이상을 웃도는 더위는 이어질 것으로 보기 때문에 이번 강수 패턴이 더위를 완화시키고 약화시키는 분기점이 될 것이라고 보기는 어렵다고 단정할 수 있겠습니다.]

더위가 가시고 선선한 가을을 맞이하게 된다는 절기 ‘처서’가 코앞이지만, 당분간은 폭염, 열대야와의 싸움이 불가피할 전망입니다.

YTN 김민경입니다.

촬영기자;나경환, 최성훈
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디자인;임샛별

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Курська операція показала партнерам на що насправді здатна українська армія. Британці тішаться, що їхня техніка бере участь в успішному просуванні ЗСУ. Водночас, знову підняли тему дозволів використання західної далекобійної зброї по території РФ. Деталі від телеканалу ICTV.

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